Is the Democratic Majority Finally Emerging?

In our 2002 book The Emerging Democratic Majority, Ruy Teixeira and I argued that if Democrats continued to gain middle-class professionals and the growing minority vote, while maintaining sufficient support—we estimated 40 percent—among the white working class, they could rebuild the enduring majority they enjoyed between 1932 to 1968. Since the collapse of that majority, American politics has been on a teeter-totter where it has not had a dominant party. One party has held control of the presidency and both houses of Congress for only fourteen of the last forty-six years. Since the 2008 election, power has changed hands in one of these three centers of power in every biennial election. Power has been elusive. The electorate has been volatile. In that sense, the 2026 midterms were not unusual. But in another respect, they were unusual—and we should therefore ask again whether a new Democratic majority is on the horizon.

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