Young, diverse voters showed up for midterms as older, Trump voters stayed home

Much of the midterm “blue tsunami” came from diverse, enthusiastic young voters with financial struggles who flocked to the polls, and also Trump voters sitting out the election, according to two experts analyzing turnout in a handful of states with detailed results. The results, they say, could mean a mandate for bringing costs down and more power for young Latinos, but also a danger for Democrats if Republicans rally back to the polls in 2028. “It looks like more Trump voters who didn’t vote Republican stayed home rather than switching (to Democrats),” said Lenny Bronner, founder of Broome Street Labs and a data scientist formerly with the Washington Post, based on his analysis of 13 states with detailed results. “Those voters are easier for the GOP to win back than those who chose a Democratic candidate,” Bronner said. Bronner estimated 75% of Democratic gains came from a turnout gap and about 20% from Republicans switching sides and voting for Democrats.

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